Trade

Before I get into the trade I guess I should comment on what I think of the Leafs lately.  It’s been the same as all year and it’s gone exactly as predicted so far.  The team is young, inexperienced and therefore inconsistent.  I do see signs of improvement though.

-  Although the team still has a tough time putting together 60 minutes, they have been doing much better at making the down times in the games not absolute debacles and as a result have found some success lately in close games.

-  The teams power play and penalty kill are improved from last year.

-  James Reimer has come from a depth prospect to being a pretty decent looking goaltending prospect which could prove to be beneficial given the Leafs prospect depth at that position (with Gustavsson, Rynnas and Scrivens all developing).

-  Kulemin, Grabovski and MacArthur are all having career years and provided MacArthur gets re-signed it looks like the Leafs have a legitimate second line for next year.

They still need a centre and a quality leader though.  Brad Richards would fill both of those voids if he becomes available but a lot has to happen before he becomes available and I’m not counting on it.

I picked the Leafs to finish 10th in the East this year and unfortunately if they don’t get a legitimate first line centre in the off-season I fear a very similar result next year.

Now the trade

The key piece in this deal is Jake Gardiner.  As of 2009 he was ranked as Anaheim’s #1 prospect.  He was a 2008 17th overall pick which makes him a young high end offensive defenseman prospect which the Leafs really do not have aside from 2009 2nd round pick Jesse Blacker. 

Will Jeoffery Lupul help the Leafs?  Probably not much but if he stays healthy he should have more of an upside than Joey Crabb.  If he can play 70 games and score 20 goals I’ll be happy. 

Will losing Beauchemin hurt the Leafs?  Probably not.  He wasn’t as bad as people liked to believe but he wasn’t as effective as people had hoped either in terms of shutting the other team down or putting up points.

In short, I think the Leafs are right where I thought they’d be this year and in my view the trade isn’t a very significant one but one where the Leafs got a much needed offensive defensive prospect.

The Marlies

I was listening to a podcast the other day and Doug MacLean made an interesting observation or more accurrately some insight into what farm teams usually look like.  Now I wouldn’t call MacLean a great GM but what he said makes sense.

Maclean essentially said that a good farm team aims to have 8 prospects, 8 depth guys that can be called up to fill the void on the big club on a short term basis and 8 veteran guys. 

I am going through the Marlies roster to see where they are at while I watch them play Abbottsford on CBC.  Here are my criteria:  To be a prospect the player has to have a legitimate shot of cracking the NHL on a permanent basis in the next two or three years.  To be a depth player, the player has to be relatively young in age and playing on a 2 way deal and while they have an outside chance at making the NHL on a regluar basis they will likely be career minor leaguers.  The last category of veteran is a guy who has played more than five seasons of professional hockey and is not likely to be back in the NHL on a permanent basis. 

Here’s how I think the Marlies break down:

PROSPECTS

1.  Nazem Kadri (20)  -  Kadri is obviously the Leafs best prospect.  Drafted 7th overall in 2009, Kadri has a significant upside.  Once he matures and finds some consistency in his game in all three zones he’ll be ready for the big club.

2.  Keith Aulie (21)  – Aulie looked solid in his 12 games with the Leafs and has been one of the Marlies best defensive defenseman according to Dallas Eakins.  He was Calgary’s 4th rounder in 2007.  Myguess is he’s NHL ready for next year should the Leafs make room for him.

3.  Luca Caputi (22) - Pittsburgh’s 4th rounder in 2007 has experienced a tough year this year.  He had a great training camp but was sent down due to a numbers crunch.  When he was called back up he didn’t have the same jump he had when he looked good in training camp.  He’s currently injured and hasn’t put up good numbers with the Marlies in only 11 games.  He’s shown he can play but it looks as though he’s got another season or two to break the door down and earn a spot with the big club or drop to career minor leaguer.

4.  James Reimer (22) – The Leafs 4th round pick from 2006 dropped as far as the ECHL but after a great season in the AHL last year, a good one this year and a very promising short stint with the Leafs recently.  He’s shown he’s got the tools to play in the NHL but the next step will be to do it over a prolongued period which he most assuredly will get an opportunity to do.

5.  Jerry D’Amigo (19) – D’Amigo seems to have taken a step back this year.  Although he wasn’t expected to put up huge numbers, he’s been inconsistent and may have been better served playing the year in Kitchener of the OHL and starting his Marlies career next year.  He also had a poor World Juniors.  With that being said, he’s got a lot of upside and will need a few years of development before he can get a shot at sticking with the big club.

6.  Korbinian Holzer (22) – Holzer has been steady with the Marlies this season and had a decent showing in 2 games with the Leafs.  Holzer was also selected in the 4th round of the 2006 draft and will probably compete for a spot on the big club with Keith Aulie next year.

7. Jussi Rynnas (23) – This undrafted Fin has been player of the week in the AHL already, has a 2.66 GAA and .916 save percentage.   He’ll probably be competing with Scrivens and Reimer for a backup job next year.

8.  Ben Scrivens (23) – This undrafted NCAA grad has been very good at the ECHL level and some, including Bill Watters, have actually pegged him as being better than Rynnas.  He’s in the same boat as Rynnas in that he’ll be competing for a backup position with the Leafs next season otherwise he’ll compete for the starting position with the Marlies.

9.  Matt Lashoff (24) – Lashoff could go into the ‘depth player’ category and likely will next year.  But Boston’s 2005 first round pick has been the Marlies best offensive defenceman with 20 points in 42 games and a plus one rating.

10.  Marcel Mueller (22) – He’ll have to prove next year that he can stick with the big club or he’ll also be relegated to depth player but I’ll give the undrafted German more than half an AHL season and a game with the Leafs before declaring him a bust too. 

SUMMARY:  The Leafs have a decent pool of prospects.  If I had to grade their potential I’d say overall it’s a solid C with maybe two guys with top line potential.  Coming in next yea rwill likely be Jesse Blacker, Kenny Ryan and maybe Brad Ross and Greg McKegg.  The one area where they do have some good depth is in goal.  Each goaltending prospect has been very good at the AHL level and it’s likely that one will be moved as part of a trade to clear the log jam at that position.

DEPTH GUYS:  Some of these guys (like Hodgeman) could turn into prospects because they are young enough but the rest will likely be career minor leaguers who can step in from time to time. 

- Justin Hodgeman (22), Christian Hanson (23), Brayden Irwin (23), Greg Scott (22), Jiraj Mikus (21), Dale Mitchell (21), Simon Gysbers (23), Richard Greenop (21), Mike Brennan (24)

Some of these guys could turn into prospects (like Mikus, Mitchell and Hodgeman) but given who they’d have to leap frog to make the Leafs roster it’s unlikely that they crack the lineup on a permanent basis within the next one or two seasons.

VETERANS

Jeff Cowan (33), Jeff Finger (30), Mike Zigomanis (30), Joey Crabb (27), Darryl Boyce (26), Alex Foster (26), Jay Rosehill (25), Danny Richmond (26), Fabian Brunnstrom (25), Josh Engel (26).

Of course Brunnstrom could crack the NHL eventually  but at 25 I’m sure that ship has sailed.  If you’ve been reading this over the next few months you’ll know I have no problem with the Leafs trading Stefanovich.  I doubt Brunnstrom does anything to turn heads this year so who knows what the future holds for him.  My guess is he’s back in Sweden by the springtime. 

CONCLUSION

The Marlies are starting to look like a good farm team.  My guess is that Kadri, Aulie and perhaps Reimer will graduate from prospect to NHL regular and be replaced by the likes of Kenny Ryan and Jesse Blacker.  I’d like to see the overall quality of the prospect pool improve so that there are more high end prospects but that will take time.  Given that the big club is so young, at least most of these 20 and 21 year olds will have appropriate time to improve.

A Tale of Two Teams

I remember watching the Leafs play the Sharks two years ago.  I think they lost something like 5-1 and I remember thinking how far the Leafs had to go to get to that level.  The Sharks were faster, worked harder and seemed 100% more organized than the young Leafs.

Last night showed me just how far this team has come since then.  Yes I am aware that the Sharks are on a losing streak.  Yes I am aware that the Leafs are playing well but are still a mile out of the playoffs.  I am also aware that the Sharks have a roster that destroys the Leafs on paper and the Leafs are technically playing with their third string goaltender.

The difference isn’t just in the result it’s in the attitude and resilience.  The Leafs went down 1-0.  Two years ago they looked scared of the oncoming all star lineup.  Last night they paid  no mind to Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley, Dan Boyle et all and showed them no quarter.  Instead they kept chipping away and chipping away.  When they got hemmed in their own end they found a way to get out of it and start pressuring the Sharks. and were rewarded with a win.

In a seven game series I’d take the Sharks every time but it is clear that this team is slowly starting to come together.  Young players are improving and showing confidence and consistency.

They key will be to end the season with a winning record.  I predicted 10th at the beginning of the season and I still think it’s doable.  Playoffs are a longshot at best but if the Leafs can have a great second half it will go a long way to building a team that can make the playoffs next year.  Making the playoffs, as Burke loves to point out, is the first step in a long journey for a Cup team because usually that first year is the year the team learns what it takes to play in an NHL playoff series and usually it’s the following year when they can start thinking about advancing.

The big question is, how do you send James Reimer down?

We Have Ourselves a Goaltending Conundrum

Firstly, it looks like Doug MacLean and Nick Kypreos came to their senses over the weekend.  I listened to yesterday’s podcast of HockeyCentral at Noon and they backed off on  their whole “trade everybody for second rounders” stance.

The admitted that at the very least Burke should wait and see what he has with Grabovski etc. as in can they sustain this consistency?  Will they wilt if the team starts climbing the standings?  I think that’s fair.

MacLean also echoed exactly what I’ve been saying that Grabovski could be a very good #2 on the team if they can get that big #1 guy like Richards. 

What a difference a weekend makes.

 Last night’s game was one of the best games of the NHL season so far and not just for the Leafs.  I watch a lot of hockey on my Centre Ice package and last night’s game was up there.  It had everything; two young fast, skilled teams playing fast paced hockey.  There were plenty of chances, great goaltending, good hits and even a fight.  The game was close and it was great to see the Leafs play a pretty solid sixty minutes.

There is one problem and it’s a nice problem to have and that’s goaltending.

James Reimer hasn’t convinced me that he’s the second coming of Patrick Roy but he has convinced me that at this point anyway, the team is very comfortable with him in net.  He’s got a ‘calming  presence’ as Wilson has pointed out and he makes big saves at key times while his rebound control is fantastic so far.

So what’s the problem?  Well Giguere is coming back which poses a bit of a conundrum.

1.  Somebody has to be sent down. Both Giguere and Gustavsson have to clear waivers to do so which means Reimer is the easy choice  because he does not have to clear waivers.

BUT

2.  Reimer has provided the best goaltending for the Leafs in the past month and has earned the right to keep helping the team wins

BUT

3.  Somebody has to be sent down or traded and Reimer hasn’t played nearly enough games to start trading your top tandem.  Right now Reimer is relatively unknown.  What happens once other team’s scouts start picking this kid’s game apart?  Will he wilt or is he really that solid?  I wouldn’t go trading Gus or Giggy on the back of a few good games.

BUT

4.  The team needs wins and so far Reimer seems to be the goaltender providing those wins . Wilson and Burke also assured their young players that good play would be rewarded and that he would play whoever was winning in goal.

You see the conundrum?  What would I do if I were a GM?

I don’t know that there’s an easy answer other than to sit one of the other goalies in the press box until Reimer shows that he’s either ready for the big time or that this string of games was just an unknown rookie on a hot streak. 

One thing’s for sure though; depth at goal is a good thing to have.  Oh and the Marlies have been decimated with injuries and callups but it’s shed light on even more goaltending depth in the organization.  Aside from a drubbing a few nights ago, Rynnas and Scrivins have  been outstanding for the depleted Marlies. 

I think a trade is inevitable at this point and the only question is who?

Brian Burke Interview

I listened to a very interesting podcast yesterday from Hockeycentral at noon with Millard, Kyprios and Doug McLean.

They were talking about the Leafs and then interviewed Brian Burke.  The panel seemed to think the following:

1. Brian Burke should trade Grabovski, MacArthur, Versteeg and Beauchemin for second round picks so they can go to the draft for three or four second rounders and

2.  Ron Wilson should play a more defense oriented style to suit the young kids.

Brian Burke responded with the following points:

1.  There are, and should be, very few untouchables on a last place roster (in the division).

2.  With that being said there are those who have played well enough that it would take a considerable offer to get them (MacArthur is in this category he said)

3.  He’s not interested in acquiring second round picks because they don’t help him right now.

4.  Young players can’t develop in a trap system and a trap system won’t win a championship which he said “is the only thing [he] cares about.”

The more I read this the more I think I understand what Burke is doing and my posts reflect it.  Firstly I take issue with the panel undervaluing Leaf prospects.  I know Leaf fans overvalue their prospects like no other team but insisting that Versteeg, MacArthur and Grabovski are worth second round picks is ridiculous.

Firstly, if we want to go by market value, the Dallas Stars paid a 3rd round pick (which could turn into a 2nd) for a 35 year old Jamie Langenbrunner who has 14 points in 31 games who will be unrestricted in the summer.  He does have a Cup ring which can be valuable to a young team attempting to make a playoff run.

Well if Langenbrunner is worth a 2nd (if he re-signs or if the Stars advance in the playoffs0 then 24 year old Kris Versteeg who has a year left on his 3 mil contract followed by Restricted Free Agency is worth considerably more.  Firstly, he also has a Cup ring and it’s a much more recent one.  Secondly, he’s eleven years younger.  Thirdly he’s got 30 points in 39 games.

That lettuce has to be worth more than a 2nd round pick.

 

Now you could put MacArthur and Grabovski in that category too except that MacArthur is an RFA at the end of the season and neither have Cups.  Furthermore the Leafs traded a 2nd round pick for Grabovski BEFORE he’d played a full NHL season.

The point is that players in their mid twenties who are having breakout seasons don’t go for second round picks in what is predicted to be a weak draft.

The panel pointed out that their stats are inflated because they are getting big minutes on a bad team.  I believe that’s probably true to an extent but what if playing time was all they needed to establish themselves as top six forwards?  Not every player will flourish with big minutes so I don’t see increased playing time as an automatic guarantee of increased stats (see Kadri or Stalberg in Chicago)

However, I also believe that this may be a breakout season for all three in which they are establishing themselves as legitimate top six forwards.  Not a legitimate 1st line to be sure but there is some evidence to indicate that these guys could be a dependable second line on most teams in the NHL.  Here’s why

1.  They are consistent and produce when playing against the other team’s best defenders.  Other teams have now figured out that this line is far more dangerous than Kessel and two rookies.

2.  They are defensively responsible.  A true top six forward must be defensively responsible if the team has any hope of succeeding.  The Leafs are 27th in the NHL and nearly every player on the team is a minus with  a few exceptions:  Grabovski is plus five, Kulemin is plus one and MacArthur is even.  Now plus/minus is a deceiving statistic and I will be the first to argue that but they can reflect consistency on a defensively bad team.  If your line is a plus line on a defensively bad team then your line is getting it done defensively.

The panel seemed to think that Burke should identify the players he wants to move forward with and keep them while trading anything else for second round picks.

The last question I’d have for the panel is the following: What would the Leafs have to gain by this?

Grabovski, Kulemin and MacArthur will probably all get 20 goals and 50-60 points this season and the oldest of the three is Grabvoski at 26.  What are the chances of any of those 2nd round picks ever becoming 20 goal scorers or 50-60 point men in their careers?  Statistically it’s not very likely.

The Leafs also don’t have a first round pick this year so the inevitable fall down the standings would not help them one bit.  I’d be more inclined to agree with dumping players for draft picks if the reward at the end was a first overall pick and even then I’d want it to be in a very strong draft which this one isn’t.  These guys will still have value next year if the Leafs are in the same spot but next year the draft will be stronger and the Leafs will have their 1st round pick.

If the whole point is to develop your players then why trade them as soon as they show signs of success?  A successful season may be an anomaly if the player is past his prime and is simply having a lucky year (like Jason Blakes 40 goal campaign).  If the player is only in his third or fourth year however, it’s very possible that they are simply reaching their development and having their breakout years.  Many players like the Sedins or Martin St.Louis needed multiple NHL seasons to develop.

What if the Kulemin, Grabovski, MacArthur line not only continues this success but improves on it next year?   The fact that the Leafs have nothing to gain by getting a relatively worthless return on these guys however if the team continues to win hockey games and have a respectable second half, it will be something to build upon for next season and these guys will still be trade bait in the summer if Burke feels so inclined.  It should take a significant offer for the Leafs to give up any of these guys.  The worst thing that could happen is that these guys cool off, the Leafs continue to tank out the season, and then Burke has to trade them in the summer for the same kind of second tier return.

At this point I think the Leafs need to see if they can get rid of Beauchemin and Kaberle as they will garner a somewhat decent return but more importantly will clear cap space for the summer.  Then I think they should use that cap space in the summer to acquire a top line player if of course it is possible.  Assuming that Brad Richards will become an unrestricted free agent this summer he’s the top prize.

Regarding the second point about Ron Wilson’s systems I see both sides as I’ve indicated multiple times.  If the Leafs wanted to be more immediately competitive they should adopt a trap style.  They’d lose less games.  However, if the Leafs ever want to win a Cup or be successful in the playoffs, the trap won’t work as trap teams don’t win Cups anymore (at least not since the lockout).

This team is growing together as they gain more experience.  I think that this season should be seen as a growth year and the second half will go a long way in determining if the team is indeed growing.  This much is true: at the beginning of the season the respective stocks of Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur, Nikolai Kulemin, Luke Schenn and James Reimer were MUCH lower than they are now.  Improvement from these guys is necessary for the future and although Komisarek and Beauchemin haven’t been performing to expectations, these young guys are providing a bright spot in the development of the team as a whole.

Trading them for second round picks makes zero sense to me.

Jared Knight – The Most Valuable Prospect of the 2010 Draft

Watching Grabovski continue his development last night was a lot of fun.  That Kulemin/Grabovski/MacArthur line has emerged to be a very consistent force for the Leafs.

So what does this have to do with Jared Knight?

Firstly Jared Knight being the most valuable prospect is me having fun with NHL transactions and has nothing to do with his stats (although he’s a very good prospect for the Bruins).

The Grabovski trade is what started the chain so let’s follow it.

July 3 2008 –  Toronto trade their 2010 2nd round pick and Greg Patryn to Montreal for Mikhail Grabovski.

September 12 2008 – Montreal trade Toronto’s 2010 2nd round pick for Robert Lang.

September 5 2009 – Chicago trade Toronto’s 2010 2nd round pick for Toronto’s 2011 3rd round pick and Calgary’s 2011 2nd round pick.

September 18 2009 – Toronto trade their 2010 2nd round pick (for the 2nd time) to Boston along with 2 first round picks for Phil Kessel.

June 25 2010 – Boston use Toronto’s 2nd round pick to select Jared Knight.

So let’s recap:  Jared Knight has been involved in acquiring the following pieces either straight up or as part of a deal:

Toronto – Mikhail Grabovski and Phil Kessel

Montreal – Robert Lang

Chicago – a 2011 2nd and 3rd round pick.

Interesting journey of a draft pick isn’t it?

Alex Steen: A Cautionary Tale

Last night I couldn’t help but wonder “What if the Leafs had kept Alex Steen.”  His work in his own end alone would be a major asset to the Leafs but offensively he was creative, got on the board and looked dangerous.  He’s got 28 points in 39 games which would put him in the Leafs top three scorers and would be a much more effective pivot right now than Bozak, Brent or Boyce (with a combined total of just over 100 games of NHL experience)  I listened to the ‘expert’ panel discuss how bad the Steen/Coliacovo for Stempniak deal was while at the same time say that the Leafs are bad because they ‘are not good enough.’ 

That latter part is true to an extent but the first part of that must be taken into account too.  I find it terribly ironic that the same people who criticize that deal are the ones calling for Burke/Wilson’s head because the current roster of mostly first, second and third year players isn’t getting it done.

Well when Steen was traded he wasn’t getting it done either and was at a very similar point in his career as these young Leafs are.

Alex Steen was drafted 24th overall in 2002.  It took him three years to crack the Leafs roster and in 2005 as a 21 year old rookie, Steen notched 18 goals which showed a lot of promise.  Steen notched 15 goals in each of the following two seasons and I remember ‘experts’ blasting his lack of consistency and wondering when he would ‘get over the hump’ which apparently should be expected of a 23 year old third year  pro. 

When Steen was traded at the beginning of the 2008 season he had 2 goals and 4 points in 20 games with the Leafs.  The 24 year old had been in the organization for six years, played 253 games, and added 50 goals, 74 assists for a combined 124 points in that time.   The rest of the season for Steen went pretty much like the first when he mustered an additonal 6 goals.

Last year was a different story.  The then 25 year old had his breakout year.  It took four full NHL seasons to do it but he notched 24 goals and 23 assists for 47 points in only 68 games.  This year his 14 goals thus far put him on pace to match last year’s totals and perhaps even surpass them.  The best part about Steen though isn’t his offensive totals, it’s his reputation as the best two way forward on the Blues and one of the better ones in the league.

I’m not saying that if Steen were still a Leaf he’d solve the Leafs #1 centre woes: he wouldn’t.  The point is that when the Leafs gave up on Steen he was a 24 year old young player with only 240 games of experience.

So many current Leafs fall into that category:  Versteeg, Kulemin, Grabovski, MacArthur and Schenn have all played less than 250 NHL games.  Bozak, Kadri, and Gustavsson have played less than 100. 

No matter what anybody thinks should be done, these guys all need more time before the Leafs give up on them.  If only they’d used that kind of thinking with Steen.  Steen and Coliacovo turned into Peter Granberg, Daniel Brodin and a 6th round pick this year.  If they are going to turn into anything it will now be yet another three or four years or more of waiting.  Stempnak has 8 goals in 40 games for the Coyotes.

Hindsight is 20/20 but what’s the point of making these kinds of mistakes if you don’t learn from them?

The Leafs Don’t Know How to Draft (or DO they?)

One of the most popular things that Leaf fans and detractors say is that “The Leafs can’t draft”.  They also say “they can’t develop picks)

I won’t argue that for a second of the pre 2005 Leafs but keeping in mind that draft picks usually take 3 or more years to develop, I’d say that since the lockout the Leafs have actually fared quite well believe it or not. 

The one good thing that John Ferguson did for this organization (yes there was something!) when he took over is expand the scouting department during the lockout. 

In 2003 and 2004 the Leafs were legitimate Stanley Cup Contenders and the scouting department was assembled by his predecessor Pat Quinn.  The result was that the 2003/2004 drafts for the Leafs have thus far produced ONE regular NHL hockey player being my favourite Leaf whipping boy John Mitchell.

But what about the lockout and beyond?  Sure Fergie made horrible trades of some of these players and Burke has traded a few away but let’s look at each draft and what it produced.  I’ll go through the 2008 – 2010 drafts seperately because as per my criteria I believe that two years isn’t enough time to accurately judge a draft while three years is enough time to start seeing some trajectory.

2005  (6 draft picks)

 # of current NHL regulars – 2 (Tuukka Rask 1/21 and Anton Stralman 7/216)

# of prospects currently splitting time between the NHL and AHL – 0

2006 (7 draft picks)

# of regular NHLers – 3 (Jiri Tlusty 1/13, Nikolai Kulemin 2/44, Viktor Stalberg  6/161)

# of players splitting time between the NHL and AHL – 2 (James Reimer 4/99 and Korbinian Holzer 4/111)

2007 (6 draft picks *no 1st or 2nd rounders)

# of regular NHLers – 1 (Carl Gunnarson 1/194)

# of players splitting time between the NHL/AHL - 0

# of players in their 1st or 2nd years in the AHL – 3 (Dale Mitchell 3/74, Jiraj Mikus 5/134Chris DiDomenico 6/164)

# of players still in college (and thus not eligable for an Entry Level contract) – 2 (Matt Frattin 4/99 and Ben Winnet 4/104)

Now for the 2008, 2009 and 2010 NHL drafts most of the players are still in college or junior and thus are still considered prospects so success and failure of the draft won’t be known for a few years.  Still, there are already two players who have seen time in the NHL: Luke Schenn 5th overall in 2008 who is probably the Leafs best defenceman and of course Nazem Kadri along with one AHL rookie in Jerry D’Amigo. 

Next year you can look for Kenny Ryan and Jesse Blacker to join the list of prospects developing in the AHL.

Let’s recap the tally of how the Leafs did in the the three drafts which could be reasonably expected to produce at the very least a legitimate prospect or two.

Total # of draft picks – 19

Total # of current NHL regulars – 6

Total # of prospects knocking on the door (splitting time between the AHL/NHL) – 2

Total # of 1st or 2nd year AHL prospects – 3

Total # of players still in college – 2

So out of 19 draft picks only six can be considered total failures in that they never made the AHL or NHL. 

Is that good? 

Let’s look at drafting powerhouse Pittsburgh in those same years

Total # of draft picks – 20

Total # of regular NHLers – 3 (Crosby, Letang, Staal)

The Penguins do have some good prospects developing from those drafts like Dustin Jeffery and Luca Caputi (with the Leafs) but I won’t go into as much detail.

Now I’m no fool.  I’d trade all 19 of those Leaf draft picks for ONE Sidney Crosby so obviously quality is more important than quantity. 

So where does that leave the Leafs? 

Well the Leafs didn’t draft any real impact players aside from Tuuka Rask in that time but they did draft some quality young NHLers who will still need a few years to show their full potential which is better than what they were doing before the lockout. 

When grading the Maple Leafs draft record most people automatically put an F on the paper; I’d say it’s more like a C+ to a B for the number of draft picks that worked out (meaning they made the NHL or are projected to challenge for an NHL spot).

In a few years we’ll start grading Brian Burke and Cliff Fletcher’s picks from 2008 – 2010 and what will increase that grade is if one or more of those players turn into legitimate top line NHLers.  So far Schenn is well on his way to that and many believe Kadri has that potential. 

As this little report should show you, only time will tell.

What Would a “Proper” Re-Build Look Like in Toronto?

To begin with I must emphatically state the following: I do not believe that any template exists for building a Stanley Cup Champion. If one did exist then all 30 NHL teams would have Cups or be legitimate Cup Contenders.

But I read through the drivel and the erroneous arguments and the oversimplifications on a daily basis.

“Just tank, draft 1st overall and win a Cup” seems to be the most common thought.  Or “the only way to win a cup is to build through the draft”

Well let’s look at the two examples that they usually give (Chicago and Pittsburgh) and overlook the trades, free agent signings and late round draft picks that contributed to that Cup and pretend that the only reason the teams won is because of tanking for draft picks and building through the draft.

The Penguins first ‘tanked’ in 2002 when they drafted Ryan Whitney 5th overall (although they did draft Colby Armstrong and Brooks Orpik in the top 20 in 2000-2001).  The Penguins didn’t make the playoffs for five years, did not win a playoff series for six and won the Cup seven years after their first ‘tank’.

The Chicago Blackhawks first started focusing on ‘building through the draft’ (ie. the proper way) in 2001 when they acquired two first round picks (Tuomo Ruutu 9th overall and Adam Munro 29th overall).  Their Norris trophy winning defenceman Duncan Keith was drafted in the 2nd round in 2002, while Seabrook (1st round) and Byfuglien (8th round) were drafted in 2003.  Cam Barker was their first ‘tank’ pick when they got him 3rd overall in 2004.  The Hawks didn’t make the playoffs until 2009 and then won the Cup in 2010.  That’s eight years between starting their ‘build through the draft’ focus where they obtained three key pieces of their Cup roster.  Of course Patrick Kane (the result of good lottery fortune) and Jonathan Toews were what put the team over the edge but most of the pieces were already drafted by that point.

So what would that look like in Toronto?

Contrary to the jokers out there, the Leafs haven’t been ‘re-building since 1967′.  After the lockout Ferguson’s mandate was to make the playoffs.  It’s why he traded high draft picks for the likes of Vesa Toskala, Mark Bell, Jeff O’Neill, Andrew Raycroft and Yanic Perreault instead of keeping them and building with youth.  When Fergie was fired the mandate changed to that of a re-build which is why Fletcher traded as many veterans as he could for draft picks and why Burke continued that process.

For the Leafs both “building through the draft” and “tanking” began in 2008 when they drafted Luke Schenn 5th overall. 

If we use Pittsburgh and Chicago as examples, if the Kessel deal was never made and the Leafs tanked for picks they’d make the playoffs in five or six years followed by a Cup in seven or 8. 

That means that without the Kessel deal the Leafs could have expected a playoff berth and early exit in 2013 or 2014 followed by a Cup in 2015 or 2016. 

Would I take that if it were guaranteed? Absolutely.

But tanking is far from guaranteed.  The Thrashers, Islanders, Panthers, Blue Jackets, Blues and Caps have all tried it to no avail.  It relies on a few variables:

1)  The picks you tank for have to be back to back generational type players like Malkin/Crosby or Kane/Toews.  If your pick is Tavares or Erik Johnson you simply have a very good young piece as opposed to an immediate impact player.

2) You have to surround those players with the right talent through late round fully developed draft picks, trades and free agents. 

What if the Leafs drafted Tyler Seguin (who by now should show people that he’s not the next Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin) and this year got 1st overeall Couturier (even though they’ll likely be drafting around 5th). 

Neither player is Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin or Alex Ovechkin material. 

Do you really think that Leaf fans would happily wait another five years just to make the playoffs while these players develop?  Judging by what people write about Kadri’s ‘lack of progress’ I sincerely doubt it. 

What if after all of those draft picks the Leafs end up like the Isladers and are still at the bottom of the standings?  What then?

There are no guarantees that what Burke is doing will work; what I can guarantee is that it has a much higher chance of showing results within the next two seasons than the ‘other’ way and while media pundits like to misquote Burke, that’s all he’s been trying to do since he got her: make the playoffs as soon as possible. 

I just hope he succeeds so I can watch the Leafs in the spring within the next few seasons.

Happy New Year! How is the Ship Progressing?

I picked the Leafs to finish tenth in the conference this year;  I am sticking to it.

Some may see that as a prediction of failure but I don’t.  I see the Leafs as a delicious Thanksgiving turkey.  You need to cook the thing for 10 hours and no matter how good it smells, or how good you know it’s going to taste, nothing will get around the fact that it will need 10 hours to cook.  If you try to eat it in 5 hours you will get sick and if you try to judge the quality of the meal after 5 hours you’ll be judging an undercooked turkey and won’t have anything favorable to say.

Hockey teams aren’t turkeys and there isn’t a set time limit to developing youth but you get the analogy.  Some teams do it in two or three seasons (like the Kings) some do it in six or seven (like the Hawks and Pens) and some teams still haven’t figured out how to do it after a decade of trying (like the Islanders).

This is what the Blackhawks looked like last year...the Leafs just got put in the oven!

If it’s going to take the Leafs 10 hours to cooke I’d say they are at about hour 5.  Sure there are problems and mistakes that any fan can point to.  Starting the season with nearly zero depth up the middle predictably sealed their fate before the season started, some big name signings are definitely underperforming (see Komisarek) and Kaberle has predictably done nothing to make me think that Burke was right to keep him.

When Burke inherited the Leafs he faced three problems:

1) A roster full of overpriced, underachieving older players

2) A farm team that contained no actual prospects

3) A depth chart that desperately lacked developing prospects.

Burke has a plan and if one looks carefully its progress is in its infancy stages.  Here’s how he’s addressed those issues:

1) THE ROSTER: Burke traded away most of the players he inherited  (like Blake, Antropov, Toskala, Hagman, Stajan, etc.) and some mid level prospects (like Di Domenico and Paradis) for draft picks (such as those used to select Kenny Ryan and Jesse Blacker) and for younger players like Kris Versteeg and Dion Phaneuf.  Burke also made the controversial deal for the now 23 year old Kessel and signed UFAs like Clarke MacArthur, Mike Komisarek, Francois Beauchemin, Colby Armstrong and the un-drafted Tyler Bozak.

21 year old 5th overall pick Luke Schenn will be a key piece of the team moving forward.

The result is that combined with the inherited Luke Schenn, Nikolai Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski and Carl Gunnarson, the Leafs roster is a younger more inexperienced one.

The goal for the roster is that the core of players going forward being mostly 25 or younger will approach their prime together in the next two or three years.  To be sure there will be changes but having a young, developing roster gives younger prospects some breathing room to develop over the next few seasons.  This will be absolutely necessary in building a reliable system with fully developed prospects instead of rushing (and ruining) prospects which Toronto has been accused of over the years.  In a city like Toronto where everything is scrutinized, the team doesn’t have the luxury of letting their prospects make mistakes at the NHL level so extra development time will be necessary.

2) THE FARM: Because the Leafs didn’t have a lot of high end talent in the 21-25 year old range developing on the farm, Brian Burke has attempted to fill those holes with un-drafted free agents like Bozak, Hanson, Irwin, Mueller, Rynnas, Scrivens and Simon Gysbers.  It is highly unlikely that all of these players will become NHLers but what adding these players does is increase the likelihood that at least one or two will become regular NHLers.  For now Bozak has earned a regular NHL spot and although he isn’t dominating, he looks like he belongs on most nights.

There are of course a few Leafs draft picks from pre 2008 who have survived the purge like Korbinian Holzer, James Reimer and Jiraj Mikus.  At this point, according to what I’ve heard from Dave Poulin, they are all progressing but are still another 2 – 3 years away from cracking the roster on a regular basis.

Perhaps the closest players to cracking the roster on a permanent basis are 20 year old Nazem Kadri and 21 year old Keith Aulie who will likely continue to bounce back and forth for the rest of the season.  They both look like they could be ready next year and in Aulie’s case, if the Leafs move a defenseman at the deadline this year, he could finish the year with the Leafs.

19 year old Jerry D’Amigo looks like he’s a few years away as does Dale Mitchell.

The re-stocking of the farm has done two things: Firstly, it has now provided a competitive AHL roster full of mostly 21-23 year olds who have one or two years left on their entry level deals.  The second thing it does is that because of the first reason, promising Leaf draft picks can now spend an extra year or two developing in junior before challenging for an AHL roster spot where they will likely spend another two years or so.

The result is that the AHL team has a roster full of kids who are almost ready to show whether or not they have what it takes to break into an NHL roster while waiting in the wings are some kids who will need a little more time.  The best part about having a strong farm team is that there shouldn’t be any urgency to start throwing these kids in the lineup before they are ready.

3) THE SYSTEM: Despite the erroneous declarations by ‘experts’ like Spector and Strachen etc. the Leafs ARE building through the draft despite the price paid for Kessel.  Burke has quietly drafted in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds three times in the past two drafts.  Right now the Leafs have a few kids putting up very good numbers in junior from the past two drafts (McKegg, Ross, Ryan Nicholls and Blacker) with two already developing with the Marlies (Kadri, D’Amigo) and one who is apparently a longer term project (Olden) developing in Europe.   Blacker and Ryan will join the Marlies next year but I wouldn’t be shocked to see McKegg and Ross sent back to junior for another year if the Marlies roster is set.

Look I’m no idiot.  The Leafs system isn’t the best in the NHL but it’s certainly in the top half of the league (according to Hockey’s Future and the Hockey News anyway).  I’m not writing this to convince anybody that the Leafs have a dozen Patrick Sharps developing right now.  Realistically half of those players will never become NHL regulars and if two become legitimate top line players at their positions the Leafs will be very happy.

The point is that there is a plan:  1) Build a roster full of young players and give them time to develop some chemistry and put less pressure on the Marlies to provide NHL ready prospects 2) Build a Marlies roster full of 21-24 year olds who will compete for roster spots with the big club but will need development time which will put less pressure on recent draft picks and 3) allow recent draft picks an extra year or two of junior (or in Europe) before starting their development in the AHL.

There is no guarantee that this will work but establishing a development system had to be done and was never going to happen overnight.  My guess is that we won’t see how well the implemented system will pay off for another 2 or 3 years at least but the important thing is to stick to it because as I’ve said over and over: Development takes time.

To finish today’s long winded post, here’s my list of the top five Maple Leaf prospects 21 and under.

1.  NAZEM KADRI - (20 years old drafted 7th overall 2009)

As soon as Kadri learns how to make better decisions and use his creativity more responsibly he’ll be a very good player.  He’s certainly got the vision and the tools; now he just needs a bit of time.

2.  KEITH AULIE - ( 21 years old drafted in the 4th round by Calgary acquired in the Phaneuf deal)

Aulie looked very steady in his time with the Leafs and has been the Marlies best defenseman this year (from what I’ve read).  My guess is that the Leafs move Beauchemin or Kaberle this year (just a hunch) and that Aulie steps in for the remainder of the season.  Considering most of the Leafs defensive mistakes have been made by veterans I can’t really see the harm in this if Aulie is ready.

3.  JERRY D’AMIGO - (19 years old  drafted 6th round by the Leafs in 2009)

D’Amigo started the year slowly with the Marlies but has shown flashes of what made him a standout at the Juniors last year.  He’s inconsistent but is also young.  He got hurt early in the Junior tournament this year and subsequently hasn’t been as dominant this year as he was last year.  In any case, there is little doubt that D’Amigo is a steal in the 6th round when watching him skate alongside 1st and 2nd rounders and look just as good as most of them.

4.  JESSE BLACKER - (19 years old drafted 2nd round in 2009 by the Leafs)

Blacker is the best offensive defensive prospect in the Leafs system.  He’s currently a point per game in the OHL (33pts in 33 games) and is playing much better in his own end (according to his coach anyway).  Blacker won’t be in the NHL next year but he’ll definitely start his pro career with the Marlies as he’s already got a cup of coffee there last year.

5.  GRED MCKEGG - (18 years old drafted 3rd round 2010 by the Leafs)

McKegg is once again lighting up the OHL offensively.  He plays for the Erie Otters, one of the league’s worst teams, and has 54 points in 38 games.  He’s already been named OHL’s player of the week twice and considering he got 85 points in 67 games last year, it’s safe to say that McKegg has good offensive abilities at the junior level.  Only time will tell if McKegg can do it at the pro level too.  McKegg could spend another year in junior next year unless he has a stand out camp and the Leafs want to accelerate his development by having him spend a year in the AHL.

Honourable Mentions:  Brad Ross, Sondre Olden, Kenny Ryan.